Some facts, and a speculative conclusion:
The whisper in Washington is that Karl Rove has been bragging for weeks about his planned October Surprise for the 2006 midterm elections.
Almost exactly a month ago, rumor had it that Osama bin Laden had recently died of typhoid fever.
Previously, when bin Laden was rumored to be dead or captured, a videotape from him would surface, containing specific references to current events more or less proving he was still alive. No such tape has come out this month.
Conclusion: Rove’s rumored October Surprise involves bin Laden in some way. Either the adminsitration knows him to be dead and can prove it at the time of its choosing, or they have planted this story in order to provoke a response from bin Laden in the weeks just priror to the election – firing up the base and causing trepidation in the swing vote.
Just speculation on my part, but I’ll be interested to see how this plays out.