For what they're worth, my predictions of tonights results, before any polls close - or maybe slightly after - it's 6:03 p.m. EST here in Virginia but I've not heard any news.
I think the Republicans will keep the House, making history by gaining a handful of seats in a midterm election. Not at all the 15 - 30 seat gain I once predicted, but redistricting largely went towards incumbent protection rather than creating opportunity.
It looks like the Republicans have a shot at taking a one seat gain in the Senate. I think the GOP gains in Missouri, picking off Carnahan, and South Dakota, picking off Johnson by a smidgen. The GOP ought to keep seats in North Carolina and Texas, and barely defend their seats in New Hampshire, Colorado, and South Carolina. GOP challenges to Democrat-held seats in Georgia, Louisiana and Minnesota will fail despite strong party showings. In Arkansas, no surprises as Hutchinson goes down in the flames of his own hypocrisy. All told, a net gain of one - enough to control the chamber... unless Lincoln Chafee ignores the lessons of Jeffords' turncoat rebellion and gives control back to the Dems. I think Linc is too smart for that - he'll realize that he stands much more to gain from the threat of defection than from actually doing it.
Posted by wasylik at November 5, 2002 06:30 PM | TrackBack