Almost every single Democrat who has expressed an interest in running for President makes me giddy with delight at the thought of the drubbing they would receive at the hands of the current officeholder - not so much because I agree with our current President often, but because the Democratic Party is so deserving of another good drubbing. A bunch of liberal Senators and a governor from the state that elected Bernie Sanders statewide? Puh-lease. (Oh, yeah, and I forgot Al Sharpton. 'Cause he's got a strong chance.)
There's one that gives me pause, though, and that's Florida's senior Senator Bob Graham. He's got executive experience as a former two-term governor, foreign policy cred through his Senate committe activities, a moderate reputation, bulletproof party connections, a great fundraising network, and the State of Florida in his back pocket.
Let me say that again. Bob Graham has the State of Florida in his back pocket. I grew up in Florida in the shadow of Graham's political dominance. Bob Graham would embarass any other Democrat in a statewide contest for any office. I think he would also beat any Republican in a statewide contest for any office. His ability to pull the crucial swing state of Florida in a general election will convince many Democratic voters that Graham is The One in 2004.
The road to the nomination for Graham is clear, should he choose it. But can he win the general? Obviously, the state of national and world events will have a lot to do with that. But I look at one crucial factor that makes me wonder.
Many sitting Senators have won their party's nomination for President, but only two have won the office in the history of the United States: the scandal-ridden Warren G. Harding and the mythicized John F. Kennedy. (Also interesting, the last person to serve as Governor, Senator, and President was Lincoln's Vice-President, Andrew Johnson.) I don't know what it is about holding the office of Senator that weighs so heavily against winning the race for President, but it appears to be a genuine disadvantage. Perhaps some of Graham's attributes offset that disadvantage, but without knowing the nature of the obstacle it's hard to determine how to get around it.
I'll reserve for myself the tradional cowardly "barring the unforseen" that all political prognosticators love (because, after all, everything but our prediction is "unforseen,") but I think Bob Graham currently has the best chance of winning the Democratic nomination if he chooses to run, and the best chance of beating George W. Bush in 2004 - if only he can overcome that Sitting Senator Jinx.
Posted by wasylik at January 15, 2003 11:07 PM | TrackBack