[August 5, 2000]
We all know that Clinton is opposed to tax reform. The reason I'm linking to this story is for the picture that goes with it. Of course, we all know Clinton won't have to file as a married taxpayer for long. UPDATE: Another squandered opportunity, says Governor Bush. W
Exactly right, and not by accident:
Does the name "Alan Greenspan" ring a bell? Clinton had nothing to do with the nation's economic prosperity; he just got to take credit for it.
According to some polls, more than half of the nation feels the same way. W
There's much outrage over at Q and Medley about the soft-money contributions to the GOP this year, but surprisingly, no outrage at how they let themselves get suckered by a tired, transparent statistical gimmick. They cite a New York Times article stating that 739 people donated over $90 million in soft money to the Republican Party, out of a total of $137 million raised. (By the way, Jason, soft money, especially this year, is used to support party efforts at ALL levels, not just President.) They toss this number around is if, by itself, it is somehow damning. Well, that's horsepuckey.
All the article really proves is that there is a small number of really, really big donors. Well, what did you expect? Do the math - that's an average contribution of $121,000. I am frankly amazed that there are almost 800 people who have that kind of cash to throw around, and those are just the Republicans.
When you look at it, this is simply a slight variation on the old 80/20 rule: In any organization, 80% of the support (work, donations, etc.) comes from 20% of the people involved. This rule holds true, with some variation, just about anywhere: a handful of folks provide most of the donations to, say, Cornell's endowment. It's exactly what we'd expect. Where does the transparent statiscal gimmick come in? Look at the numbers - these reporters had to arbitrarily choose a cutoff and did so at the level that would best represent his point. More importantly, they completely failed to address the counterpoint - who gave the remaining 33% of the donations? That's over $47 million completely unaccounted for. It's easy to deduct that, since the other group are the "fat cats," this group must be the skinny ones. How much do the skinny cats give apiece? Five hundred? A thousand? Five thousand? Even if they ALL give five thousand apiece, that's almost ten thousand individual donors. The actual amounts donated is probably smaller, and the number of donating individuals probably larger. (The GOP typically asks for anywhere from $25 to $5000, both in their direct-mail solicitations and their website.)
So just take a breath, willya, and demand that your media gives you the complete picture. Maybe they'll get it right during the Democratic convention.... nah. W
[August 4, 2000]
What to say about Philly? I am now more than ever convinced that the Bush campaign has hit the right stride and pace to win the election in November and even bring some folks along on the Governor’s coattails. The Democrats are clearly in panic mode, even taking the unprecedented step of running attack ads during convention coverage – something that hasn’t been done in the history of televised presidential campaigns.
Most American voters haven’t paid much attention to the race until now, and Bush and Cheney took their message directly to those people. They have clearly staked out the high ground of leadership, and, by promising to elevate the level of public discourse, have cut the knees out from under Dems whose strategy was to attack, attack, attack.
Bush has never sounded better. Gore, on the other hand, immediately launched a panic attack and offered exactly what Governor Bush said he would – “fear itself.” Gore likes to pretend he's running against Big Oil, and incurs a grave risk of repeating his famous tobacco gaffe. Remember, all the while he was demonizing the tobacco industry for killing his sister, he was lining his pockets with tobacco cash. Even now, as demonizes Big Oil, the Gore family lines its pockets with oil money: the Gore family has profited even handsomely from its near million-dollar investment in Occidental Oil. By sharp contrast, Dick Cheney has given up his multi-million dollar benefit package to run for office. Gore hasn’t had the decency to divest himself from his Big Oil ownership interest.
This post-convention bounce is a big one – the four-point margin has swollen to nineteen, and keeps growing. Can Gore match it? I seriously doubt that he can. Unless there’s some big surprise in the next few months, I full expect Bush-Cheney to stay ahead of Gore, even if it’s just a narrow margin, and take the White House in November. W
Thanks to Fred for pointing out that The Hotline is available to the general public through August 18. W
[July 31, 2000]
A truly dramatic re-design at metascene... looks like Fred's discovered the FONT tag. Speaking of re-designs, I wonder if Kottke intentionally disabled the interface modification feature. 'Cause it definitely doesn't work anymore. UPDATE: Kottke has reverted back to his normally high level of usability. W
Late breaking news: I'll be going to the Republican National Convention in Philly this week. By the time you read this, I'll probably already be on the road. Fortunatley, I'll have my laptop with me, so there's a possibility that I'll be able to update as the week progresses. Is anyone else going? Let me know. You can also call me: 1.800.222.6000 x703.312.001
W